The demand for power in Egypt is set to increase in the medium- and
long term due to forecast annual growth rate of 0.98% between 2013 and 2024. We
forecast that total electricity generation will grow by 11.3% in 2015 as the
government brings new gas and coal capacity online in an attempt to overcome
chronic power shortages. The political situation has become more stabilised and
allowed for investment pledges to be made in the power sector. We expect power
generation and fixed investment in power projects to rebound over the next 18
months as a result of greater political stability and an improving economic
outlook.
Egypt's power sector is enduring an exceptionally challenging period.
Persistently high demand for energy, driven in part by the country's generous
regime of energy subsidies, has weighed heavily on Egypt's ageing electricity
infrastructure, which has struggled to keep pace with a growing need for
energy. Exacerbated by deliberate attacks on infrastructure by militants, this
has led to regular blackouts across the country, and has forced the government
to implement cutbacks in the provision of power.
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France's power industry is well developed, leaving little scope for a
substantial expansion in terms of generation or capacity over our ten-year
forecast, particularly as weak economic growth will limit any rises in domestic
consumption rates. The power market will remain dominated by domestic energy
giant EDF, however expansion of non-hydropower renewables does offer
opportunities for growth and despite a lack of regulatory clarity, France
overall is an attractive investment environment.
France's thermal generation shrunk by an estimated 19.1% y-o-y in 2014
following sharp falls in gas, coal and oil generation and is expected to remain
flat in 2015. Non-hydro renewables is recording the strongest growth. Publisher
estimates the use of non-hydro renewables grew by 5.6% in 2014 and we forecast
an additional 6% growth in 2015, followed by similar growth through to 2024. In
2015 we expect to see a minimal decrease of around 0.9% in terms of total
generation as growth in renewables is offset by declines in coal and oil
generation.
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The Qatari power sector is set for strong growth over the coming
decade as the government continues to spend heavily on new infrastructure
projects, while domestic energy consumption continues to grow. Qatar remains in
an enviable position, as the nation possesses the third largest gas reserves
globally and is the world's largest exporter of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG). In
addition, the country has a great ability to withstand the temporary decline in
global oil prices. Investments in power infrastructure will continue to remain
strong, in preparation for the FIFA World Cup, in 2022.
The outlook for the domestic power sector in Qatar remains bright.
Although the fall in international oil and gas prices has forced the government
to scale back plans to build a huge USD3bn power plant, known as Ras Laffan D,
we retain a positive outlook for the sector, with healthy fiscal coffers and
growing demand for power likely to keep government spending high for the coming
years. Although Qatar is attempting to reorient its power sector towards the
use of solar power and other renewable sources, for the time being the country
remains almost entirely dependent on natural gas for its energy. With the
economy continuing to grow at a robust pace, and the government anxious to
ensure that the country is ready for the 2022 World Cup, this is likely to
remain the case for the foreseeable future. While such dependence on a single
source of fuel for electricity generation would typically be a concern, given
the country's vast supplies of natural gas and the government's deep pockets,
it is difficult to envisage a scenario where this dependence translates into
any serious risks for the sector's outlook any time soon.
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This quarter we have made significant
upward revisions to our solar and wind power forecasts, on the back of the
added renewables capacity allocated by the South African government under the country's
REIPPP auction system. This notwithstanding, our negative outlook for South
Africa's power sector continues to remain in place this quarter. Inefficient
existing generation capacity, a lack of investment, delays to project
commissioning and the precarious financial situation of Eskom show little sign
of abating over the short- to- medium-term. This has led our Country Risk team
to revise down the nearterm growth forecasts for the country, as rolling
blackouts will offset the positive growth impact of lower oil prices. On a more
positive note, we highlight that South Africa's power plant and transmission
grid infrastructure will continue to offer investment opportunities over our
forecast period and beyond, thanks to a buoyant renewables industry, pressure
on state utility Eskom to boost generation to avoid power shortages, and South
Africa's nascent nuclear expansion plans.
In 2014, electricity generation in South
Africa stood at 237.0 terawatt hours (TWh), representing a 1.26% decrease on
the previous year. Coal-fired sources of electricity accounted for 93.1% of
this figure, and we expect that coal will continue to play a major role in
electricity production during the course of our forecast period, rising by an
average of 1.31% to stand at 251.4TWh in 2024. Economic growth and demographics
will both drive demand upwards.
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more information on this report, please visit- http://www.marketresearchreports.com/business-monitor-international/south-africa-power-report-q4-2015
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